Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects

@article{Gott1993ImplicationsOT,
  title={Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects},
  author={J. Richard Gott},
  journal={Nature},
  year={1993},
  volume={363},
  pages={315-319}
}
  • J. Gott
  • Published 1 May 1993
  • Physics
  • Nature
Making only the assumption that you are a random intelligent observer, limits for the total longevity of our species of 0.2 million to 8 million years can be derived at the 95% confidence level. Further consideration indicates that we are unlikely to colonize the Galaxy, and that we are likely to have a higher population than the median for intelligent species. 
IS THE STRONG ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE TOO WEAK
We discuss the Carter's formula about the mankind evolution probability following the derivation proposed by Barrow and Tipler. We stress the relation between the existence of billions of galaxies
A Bayesian analysis of the doomsday argument
TLDR
It is shown that Bayesian reasoning is both more subtle and more plausible than the doomsdayers' understanding of it.
Relative Likelihood of Success in the Search for Primitive versus Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life.
TLDR
It is suggested that the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) may merit a federal funding level of at least $10 million per year, assuming that the average lifetime of technological species exceeds a millennium.
The size distribution of inhabited planets
Earth-like planets are expected to provide the greatest opportunity for the detection of life beyond the Solar system. However, our planet cannot be considered a fair sample, especially if
Bayesian evidence for the prevalence of waterworlds
Should we expect most habitable planets to share the Earth's marbled appearance? For a planetary surface to boast extensive areas of both land and water, a delicate balance must be struck between the
‘Where is everybody?’ An empirical appraisal of occurrence, prevalence and sustainability of technological species in the Universe
Abstract We use recent results from astrobiology, particularly the A-form of the Drake equation and combine it with data on the evolution of life on Earth to obtain a new assessment of the prevalence
Odds for an enlightened rather than barren future
TLDR
If intelligent life forms have the same propensity to evolve later on other planets as the authors had to evolve on theirs, it follows that they will likely not pass through a similar wondering stage in their evolution.
Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction
  • J. Matheny
  • Psychology
    Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
  • 2007
TLDR
The challenges to studying human extinction risks are reviewed and, by way of example, the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction-level asteroid impacts is estimated.
ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE IN COSMOLOGY
TLDR
The anthropic principle - as a prescription for the attribution of a priori probability weighting - is illustrated by various cosmological and local applications, in which the relevant conclusions are contrasted with those that could be obtained from (less plausible) alternative prescriptions.
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 32 REFERENCES
The anthropic principle and its implications for biological evolution
  • B. Carter
  • Physics
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences
  • 1983
TLDR
It is shown that the evidence suggests that the evolutionary chain included at least one but probably not more than two links that were highly improbable (a priori) in the available time interval.
The Anthropic Cosmological Principle
Is there any connection between the vastness of the universes of stars and galaxies and the existence of life on a small planet out in the suburbs of the Milky Way? This book shows that there is. In
Extraterrestrials — where are they?
The 2nd edition of this critical examination by a range of scientists of the possibility that other intelligent life forms exist apart from us. Updated to include recent research. First published
The anthropic principle and the structure of the physical world
The basic features of galaxies, stars, planets and the everyday world are essentially determined by a few microphysical constants and by the effects of gravitation. Many interrelations between
Large Number Coincidences and the Anthropic Principle in Cosmology
Prof. Wheeler has asked me to say something for the record about some ideas that I once suggested (at the Clifford Memorial meeting in Princeton in 1970) and to which Hawking and Collins have
Time and the Anthropic Principle
Prima facie, we should prefer theories which make our observations fairly much to be expected, rather than highly extraordinary. Waking up in the night, you form two theories. Each has a half chance
The colonization of space
New ideas are controversial when they challenge orthodoxy, but orthodoxy changes with time, often surprisingly fast. It is orthodox, for example, to believe that Earth is the only practical habitat
Time without end: Physics and biology in an open universe
TLDR
The general conclusion of the analysis is that an open universe need not evolve into a state of permanent quiescence and life and communication can continue for ever, utilizing a finite store of energy, if the assumed scaling laws are valid.
Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infrared Radiation
TLDR
It is proposed that a search for sources of infrared radiation should accompany the recently initiated search for interstellar radio communications.
The Commonness, And Rarity, of Species
The purpose of this paper is to deduce, from a number of examples and from theoretical considerations, some plausible general law as to how abundance or commonness is distributed among species.
...
1
2
3
4
...