Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard

@article{Chapman1994ImpactsOT,
  title={Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and comets: assessing the hazard},
  author={C. Chapman and D. Morrison},
  journal={Nature},
  year={1994},
  volume={367},
  pages={33-40}
}
There is a 1-in-10,000 chance that a large (∼2-km diameter) asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth during the next century, disrupting the ecosphere and killing a large fraction of the world's population. Although impacts of this magnitude are so infrequent as to be beyond our personal experience, the long-term statistical hazard is comparable to that of many other, more familiar natural disasters, raising the question of whether mitigation measures should be considered. 
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