Identifying the bandwagon effect in two-round elections

@article{Kiss2014IdentifyingTB,
  title={Identifying the bandwagon effect in two-round elections},
  author={{\'A}ron Kiss and G{\'a}bor Simonovits},
  journal={Public Choice},
  year={2014},
  volume={160},
  pages={327-344}
}
We propose a new method to test for the existence of the bandwagon effect, the notion that voters are more likely to vote for a given candidate if they expect the candidate to win. Two-round election systems with a large number of single-member districts offer an ideal testing ground because results from the first round provide a better benchmark for voter expectations than any possible alternative measure. Using data from the 2002 and 2006 general elections in Hungary, we find that the lead of… 

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