Identifying efficient ensemble perturbations for initializing subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

@inproceedings{Demaeyer2021IdentifyingEE,
  title={Identifying efficient ensemble perturbations for initializing subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction},
  author={Jonathan Demaeyer and Stephen G. Penny and St{\'e}phane Vannitsem},
  year={2021}
}
The prediction of the weather at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales is dependent on both initial and boundary conditions. An open question is how to best initialize a relatively small-sized ensemble of numerical model integrations to produce reliable forecasts at these timescales. Reliability in this case means that the statistical properties of the ensemble forecast are consistent with the actual uncertainties about the future state of the geophysical system under investigation. In the… 

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