Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

  title={Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous},
  author={J. Hansen and Makiko Sato and P. Hearty and R. Ruedy and M. Kelley and V. MASSON-DELMOTTE and G. Russell and G. Tselioudis and Junji Cao and E. Rignot and I. Velicogna and Blair R. Tormey and Bailey G. Donovan and E. Kandiano and K. V. Schuckmann and P. Kharecha and A. LeGrande and M. Bauer and Kwok-Wai Lo},
  journal={Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
Abstract. We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global… Expand
North Atlantic and sub-Antarctic Ocean temperatures: possible onset of a transient stadial cooling stage
The ice core glacial-interglacial record of the last 450 kyr (Cortese et al. Paleogeogr Paleoclimatol 22:4, 2007), development of cold ice meltwater regions at fringes of the Greenland and the WestExpand
Developments in Simulating and Parameterizing Interactions Between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Recent advances in both ocean modeling and melt parameterization in ice-sheet models point the way toward coupled ice sheet–ocean modeling, which is needed to quantify Antarctic mass loss and theExpand
Why would sea-level rise for global warming and polar ice-melt?
Abstract Two major causes of global sea level rise such as thermal expansion of the oceans and the loss of land-based ice for increased melting have been claimed by some researchers and recognized byExpand
Simulating the 128-ka Antarctic Climate Response to Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Melting Using the Isotope-Enabled HadCM3: ICE SHEET MELTING DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIAL
Warmer than present Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures during the last interglacial, approximately 128,000 years ago, have been attributed to changes in north-south ocean heat transport,Expand
Ensemble global warming simulations with idealized Antarctic meltwater input
The Earth will exhibit continued global surface warming in response to a sustained increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Massive meltwater input from the Antarctic ice sheet into theExpand
Antarctic Glacial Melt as a Driver of Recent Southern Ocean Climate Trends
Recent trends in Southern Ocean (SO) climate—of surface cooling, freshening, and sea ice expansion—are not captured in historical climate simulations. Here we demonstrate that the addition of aExpand
Climatic Consequences of a Pine Island Glacier Collapse
AbstractAn intermediate-complexity climate model is used to simulate the impact of an accelerated Pine Island Glacier mass loss on the large-scale ocean circulation and climate. Simulations areExpand
Evidence for regional cooling, frontal advances, and East Greenland Ice Sheet changes during the demise of the last interglacial
Abstract High-resolution lithic and sea surface climate records are used to portray the progression of North Atlantic climate, hydrography, and Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) activity through the peak ofExpand
Linkages between atmospheric blocking, sea ice export through Fram Strait and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
It is shown that the 1962–1966 period of enhanced blocking activity over Greenland resulted in anomalous sea ice accumulation in the Arctic and ended with a sea ice flush from the Arctic into the North Atlantic Ocean through Fram Strait, indicating that an important part of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics at mid- and high latitudes requires a proper representation of the Fram Strait sea ice transport. Expand
Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt on future Köppen climate zone changes simulated by an atmospheric and oceanic general circulation model
Abstract Climate change studies in recent decades have been based on Global Climate Models (GCMs), and the changes in the distribution of climatic regions over time extracted from these models can beExpand


Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion
Changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature. In contrast to Arctic sea ice, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded1, withExpand
Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean
TEMPERATURE records from Greenland ice cores1,2 suggest that large and abrupt changes of North Atlantic climate occurred frequently during both glacial and postglacial periods; one example is theExpand
Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters
Circumpolar Deep Water has been warming and moving further up onto the shelf around Antarctica for the past 40 years, causing higher rates of ice sheet melting, which need to be taken into account when considering the potential for irreversible retreat of parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Expand
Relation of subtropical Atlantic temperature, high-latitude ice rafting, deep water formation, and European climate 130,000-60,000 years ago
Abstract A new, high-resolution record of sea surface temperature from the subtropical western North Atlantic documents a series of abrupt coolings within marine isotope stage 5 which can beExpand
Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
From ∼1,000 observations of sea level, allowing for isostatic and tectonic contributions, this work quantified the rise and fall in global ocean and ice volumes for the past 35,000 years and provides new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this interval. Expand
Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure
Abstract Geological data indicate that global mean sea level has fluctuated on 103 to 106 yr time scales during the last ∼25 million years, at times reaching 20 m or more above modern. If correct,Expand
Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods
This work concludes that during recent interglacial periods, small increases in global mean temperature and just a few degrees of polar warming relative to the preindustrial period resulted in ≥6 m of GMSL rise, which is currently not possible to make a precise estimate of peak G MSL during the Pliocene. Expand
Evidence for northward expansion of Antarctic Bottom Water mass in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial inception
[1] We investigated deep water changes in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial inception, in relationship to surface hydrology and global climatology, to better understand the mechanisms of theExpand
Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves
Satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer are used to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt, which implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales. Expand
Coupled Climate and sea-level changes deduced from Huon Peninsula coral terraces of the last ice age
Abstract Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, is a tectonically unstable, uplifting shoreline ringed by emergent coral terraces. The terraces were formed during episodes of rapid sea-level rise whenExpand