Iaf-01-u.2.06 a Method for Strategic Technology Investment Prioritization for Advanced Space Transportation Systems

Abstract

Given the limitation of financial resources on both government and industry actors, strategic decision makers, such as those leading NASA’s Space Launch Initiative (SLI), need methods for the prioritization of advanced space transportation technology investment. The Abbreviated Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection (ATIES) methodology is exercised to leap this gulf of evaluation through a systematic aggregation of decision-making techniques and sundry probabilistic methods. The methodology couples robust design simulation methods and technology ranking approaches. The reviewed architecture is a Two Stage to Orbit (TSTO) Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) based on the Bimese concept (developed at NASA’s Langley Research Center and using NASA’s 2 Generation space transportation technology assumptions). Evaluation is performed using the Reduced Order Simulation for Evaluation of Technologies and Transportation Architectures (ROSETTA) model, a spreadsheet-based meta-model representation of the design process for a specific architecture (e.g., ETO, in-space LEO-GEO, HEDS). Comparisons are made with other decision-making techniques such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The ATIES methodology is a technique that breaks the bonds of traditional design and analysis and their reliance on the linchpins of historical databases: from past realities towards hypothetical futures, from merely modeling evolutionary change for technology managers towards indicating the optimum path for revolutionary change. NOMENCLATURE AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process ATIES Abbreviated Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection CABAM Cost and Business Assessment Module DDT&E Design, Development, Testing, and Evaluation DSM Design Structure Matrix ETO Earth-to-Orbit FTE Full Time Equivalent IOC Initial Operability Capability LOM Loss of Mission LOV Loss of Vehicle MADM Multi-Attribute Decision Making MDO Multi-disciplinary Design Optimization MMC Metal-Matrix Composite NPV Net Present Value OEC Overall Evaluation Criteria QFD Quality Function Deployment PEM Pugh Evaluation Matrix RLV Reusable Launch Vehicle ROSETTA Reduced Order Simulation for Evaluation of Technologies and Transportation Architectures SSTO Single Stage to Orbit TCM Technology Compatibility Matrix TIES Technology Identification, Evaluation, and Selection TIM Technology Impact Matrix TOPSIS Technique for Order Preference to Similarity to Ideal Solution TPS Thermal Protection System TSTO Two Stage to Orbit W.S. Weighting Scenario ______________________________________________ * Senior Futurist, Member AIAA. † Director of Technical Analysis, Senior Member AIAA. ± Director of Hypersonics, Member AIAA. § President, Senior Member AIAA. Copyright ©2001 by SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI). Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., with permission. Released to IAF/IAA/AIAA to publish in all forms.

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Charania2001Iaf01u206AM, title={Iaf-01-u.2.06 a Method for Strategic Technology Investment Prioritization for Advanced Space Transportation Systems}, author={A. C. Charania and Andrew M. Crocker and John Bradford and John R. Olds}, year={2001} }