How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts

@inproceedings{Goodwin2005HowTI,
  title={How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts},
  author={Paul Goodwin},
  year={2005}
}
Thirty years ago, most researchers would have agreed with this perception. The Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky had found that people were severely limited in the amount of information that they could handle simultaneously so they employed simplistic mental strategies, or heuristics, to get around the problem. When applied to forecasting and decisions, these heuristics apparently led to such inaccurate judgments that the psychologist Paul Slovic concluded that, “In… CONTINUE READING

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