Corpus ID: 6401572

How do you adapt in an uncertain world?: lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project

@inproceedings{Reeder2011HowDY,
  title={How do you adapt in an uncertain world?: lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project},
  author={Tim Reeder and Nicola Ranger},
  year={2011}
}
INTRODUCTION As the international debates on appropriate policy responses to climate change carry on, the climate continues to warm and the commitment to further longterm warming grows. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently pronounced that 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year globally since records began in the late 19 century. In December 2010, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released a report that concluded that even if nations meet the… Expand

Figures from this paper

Coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand
ABSTRACT The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports conclude that for Australasia, without adaptation, further changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, sea-level rise and oceanExpand
2 Adaptation is inevitable 2 . 1 Increasing systemic risk
Natural hazard events in 2010 and 2011 such as the eruption of the volcano Eyjafjallajokull on Iceland, the heatwave in Russia, the extreme floods in northeastern Australia, and more recently theExpand
Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands
Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable aExpand
Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change in Europe
This paper analyses the priorities and challenges for Europe as it adapts to the impacts of climate change. Whatever the ultimate level of warming we will experience, adaptation will be a permanentExpand
Accounting for a changing and uncertain climate in planning and policymaking today: lessons for developing countries
Climate change is increasingly altering the pattern of climate-related risks. Developing countries and in particular least developed countries will be among the most severely impacted by climateExpand
Adaptation to Climate Change: Decision Making
TLDR
Three novel decision-making methods, robust decision making (RDM), real option analysis (ROA), and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP), are discussed, and their applications are then introduced in water resources planning under different climate change scenarios. Expand
1 IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR SHIPPING : PORTS AND SUPPLY CHAINS
Ports are an important economic actor – at local, national and international scales that have been identified as being vulnerable to future changes to the climate. This paper details the findingsExpand
Adaptation Pathways and Real Options Analysis: An approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies
TLDR
A structured approach for designing climate adaptation policies based on the concepts of Adaptation Pathways, Adaptive Policy Making, and Real Options Analysis is proposed, which results in incorporation of flexibility that allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. Expand
The future of the Rhine: stranded ships and no more salmon?
TLDR
The aim of this paper is to apply the adaptation turning point (ATP) approach and demonstrates its potential for analysing turning points in river management strategies as a method to support authorities in decisions on adaptation to climate change. Expand
Dealing with changing risks: a New Zealand perspective on climate change adaptation
Future changes in New Zealand’s climate are expected to be less than in many other countries, and New Zealand has well-established governance structures for dealing with environmental risks. WhileExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 25 REFERENCES
Weathering Climate Change - Some Simple Rules to Guide Adaptation Decisions
This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailingExpand
Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions
TLDR
This work focuses on the usage of decadal to centennial time-scale climate change simulations as inputs to decision making, but acknowledges that robust adaptation to the variability of present day climate encourages the development of less vulnerable systems as well as building critical experience in how to respond to climatic uncertainty. Expand
Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England
Abstract Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment frameworkExpand
Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands
Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long-term water management planning in the Netherlands, we carried out aExpand
UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections
The UK has a long maritime heritage and the marine and coastal environment continues to play an important role in the national culture and economy. United Kingdom waters cover an area approximatelyExpand
Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment
Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method toExpand
Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions
TLDR
A reassessment of the role of complex climate models as predictive tools on decadal and longer time scales is argued for and a reconsideration of strategies for model development and experimental design is considered. Expand
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
TLDR
A systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters, which produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation. Expand
Robust adaptation to climate change
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: WILBY, R.L. and DESSAI, S., 2010. Robust adaptation to climate change. Weather, 65 (7), pp.180-185, which has been published in final formExpand
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis
The checkered history of predicting the future — e.g., “Man will never fly” — has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modernExpand
...
1
2
3
...