• Corpus ID: 251066884

How Robust are Robust Measures of PCE Inflation?

  title={How Robust are Robust Measures of PCE Inflation?},
  author={Sergio Pignuoli Ocampo and Raphael S. Schoenle and Dominic A. Smith},
Time series data for robust inflation measures, such as median and trimmed mean inflation, only start in 1977. We extend these series back to 1960 for Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, providing additional episodes of high and rising inflation. We evaluate the robustness of the series along multiple dimensions: First, we find that robust inflation measures tend to diverge in periods of low inflation, but agree when headline inflation is high. The range between the robust measures… 



Trimmed mean PCE inflation

Research over the past decade has led to improved measures of core inflation in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. This paper discusses the application of some of the insights and techniques of that

What Can We Learn from 60 Years of PCE Inflation Data?

The distribution of disaggregated PCE category inflation rates has been subject to systematic changes between 1960 and 2021. Pre - 1990, extreme positive tails characterize the distribution which

A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation

The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price

Comparing Past and Present Inflation

There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as

Behavior of a New Median PCE Measure: A Tale of Tails

We introduce two new measures of trend inflation, a median PCE inflation rate and a median PCE excluding OER inflation rate, and investigate their performance. Our analysis indicates that both

Comparing measures of core inflation

Although many policymakers and analysts associate “core CPI inflation” with the CPI excluding food and energy, there are other measures of core consumer price inflation. Like the CPI excluding food

Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation

Two rationales offered for policymakers' focus on core measures of inflation as a guide to underlying inflation are that core inflation omits food and energy prices, which are thought to be more

The Slope of the Phillips Curve: Evidence from U.S. States

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for non-tradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

We adopt an endogenous growth model to reexamine the major determinants of economic growth, income distribution and their dynamic interactions in a newlyindustrialized country, Taiwan, 1964-1986.

Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation

An analysis concluding that inflation measures based on median price changes are a better indicator than measures based on mean price changes.