How Do Commodity Futures Respond to Macroeconomic News?


This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005 we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, positive (negative) news about inflation and real activity lead to positive (negative) adjustments of commodity futures prices. In contrast, we find no significant reactions in economic expansions. We attribute this asymmetric response to the state-dependent interpretation of macroeconomic news. Our findings are robust to several alternative business cycle definitions.

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@inproceedings{Hess2007HowDC, title={How Do Commodity Futures Respond to Macroeconomic News?}, author={Dieter Hess and He Huang and Alexandra Niessen}, year={2007} }