How Civil Wars End

@article{Mason1996HowCW,
  title={How Civil Wars End},
  author={Thomas D. Mason and Patrick J. Fett},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year={1996},
  volume={40},
  pages={546 - 568}
}
What conditions determine whether a civil war ends in a negotiated settlement or a military victory? The authors address this question by developing an expected utility model of the choice between seeking an immediate settlement or continuing to fight in anticipation of eventual victory. The model implies that the likelihood of a settlement varies with estimates of the probability of winning, the time required to win, the rate at which the costs of conflict accrue, and the payoffs for victory… 
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