House Price Forecasts , Forecaster Herding , and the Recent Crisis

  • Christian Pierdzioch, Jan Christoph Rülke, Georg Stadtmann
  • Published 2012

Abstract

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent… (More)

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