Hope over experience: desirability and the persistence of optimism.

@article{Massey2011HopeOE,
  title={Hope over experience: desirability and the persistence of optimism.},
  author={Cade Massey and Joseph P. Simmons and David A. Armor},
  journal={Psychological science},
  year={2011},
  volume={22 2},
  pages={274-81}
}
Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether optimism is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life's most consequential decisions often… CONTINUE READING
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