Hope Over Experience

@article{Massey2011HopeOE,
  title={Hope Over Experience},
  author={C. Massey and J. Simmons and D. Armor},
  journal={Psychological Science},
  year={2011},
  volume={22},
  pages={274 - 281}
}
Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether optimism is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life’s most consequential decisions often… Expand

Figures, Tables, and Topics from this paper

BRIEF REPORT Is Optimism Real
Is optimism real, or are optimistic forecasts just cheap talk? To help answer this question, we investigated whether optimistic predictions persist in the face of large incentives to be accurate. WeExpand
Is optimism real?
TLDR
This research supports the claim that optimism is real, as partisans were much more likely than neutrals to predict partisans' favorite teams to win and optimism emerged even when incentives were large. Expand
Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters
TLDR
NFL fans were asked to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season, and fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team’s prospects. Expand
Social Perception of Forecasters: People See Forecasts of Future Outcomes as Cues to Forecasters’ Desires, Attitudes, and Identity
While people’s forecasts of future outcomes are often guided by their preferences (“desirability bias”), it has not been explored yet whether people infer others’ preferences from their forecasts.Expand
The Belief in a Favorable Future
TLDR
Six studies demonstrated that belief in a favorable future (BFF) for political views, scientific beliefs, and entertainment and product preferences is greater in magnitude than the tendency to believe that current others share one’s views (false-consensus effect), arises across cultures, is distinct from general optimism. Expand
Giving hope a sporting chance: Hope as distinct from optimism when events are possible but not probable
Popular hope theories treat hope as an expectancy-based construct, with individuals more hopeful the greater their perceived likelihood of success. Consequently, the distinction between hope andExpand
The Belief in a Favorable Future
We propose that people hold a belief in a favorable future (BFF), projecting that the future will change in ways advantageous to their current interests. People believe that their political views,Expand
Intuitive Biases in Choice versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds
Although researchers have documented many instances of crowd wisdom, it is important to know whether some kinds of judgments may lead the crowd astray, whether crowds' judgments improve with feedbackExpand
Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes
We examined whether people reduce the impact of negative outcomes through emotional hedging—betting against the occurrence of desired outcomes. We found substantial reluctance to bet against theExpand
Evidence from the 2010 FIFA World Cup
Before and during the 2010 Soccer World Cup, participants made probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament. We examine the relationship between their depression levels and theirExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 50 REFERENCES
Wishful Thinking in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
TLDR
Assessment of uncommitted young voters’ electoral expectations and preferences over four time points during the month before the election indicated clear support for wishful thinking: over time, people’s preferences shaped their expectations, but the reverse was not the case. Expand
The influence of outcome desirability on optimism.
TLDR
It is argued that despite the prevalence of the idea that desires bias optimism, the empirical evidence regarding this possibility is limited, and the potential for desires to depress rather than enhance optimism is discussed. Expand
Unrealistic optimism about future life events
Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42Expand
Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility to health problems: Conclusions from a community-wide sample
TLDR
The results demonstrate that an optimistic bias about susceptibility to harm-a tendency to claim that one is less at risk than one's peers—is not limited to any particular age, sex, educational, or occupational group. Expand
Decision Affect Theory: Emotional Reactions to the Outcomes of Risky Options
How do people feel about the outcomes of risky options? Results from two experiments demonstrate that the emotional reaction to a monetary outcome is not a simple function of the utility of thatExpand
Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off?
TLDR
It is concluded that what appears to be a desirability bias may just be a salience/marking effect, and—although optimism is a robust and ubiquitous human phenomenon—that wishful thinking still remains elusive. Expand
Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking
Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans.Expand
Lottery winners and accident victims: is happiness relative?
TLDR
Lottery winners were not happier than controls and took significantly less pleasure from a series of mundane events, and Paraplegics also demonstrated a contrast effect, not by enhancing minor pleasures but by idealizing their past, which did not help their present happiness. Expand
Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market
TLDR
It is shown that a simple diffusion model provides a good description of the overall probability distribution of electoral college votes, and an even simpler ranking model provides excellent predictions of the probability of winning the presidency. Expand
The Effects of Experience on Entrepreneurial Optimism and Uncertainty
This paper develops an occupational choice model in which entrepreneurs, who are initially uncertain about their true talent, learn from experience. As a consequence, both optimistic bias in talentExpand
...
1
2
3
4
5
...