Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

  title={Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.},
  author={Baruch Fischhoff},
  journal={Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance},
  • B. Fischhoff
  • Published 1975
  • Psychology
  • Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance
The curse of knowledge increases self-selection into competition: Experimental evidence
The psychology literature provides ample evidence that people have difficulties taking the perspective of less-informed others. This paper presents a controlled experiment showing that this "curse ofExpand
The nature of intuition : what theories of intuition ought to be
The Nature of Intuition: What Theories of Intuition Ought to Be by LAM Hung Nin Master of Philosophy Immediate striking feelings without any conscious inference are viewed as one of the sources ofExpand
UAVs and Urban Spatial Analysis: An Introduction
There is a great deal of excitement regarding the use of small unmanned aerial systems for mapping and spatial analysis. The enthusiasm for this emerging technology is well deserved. No other dataExpand
Are “Thinkers” More Ethical Than “Doers”? How Regulatory Mode Influences Unethical Behavior
Title of Dissertation: ARE “THINKERS” MORE ETHICAL THAN “DOERS”? HOW REGULATORY MODE INFLUENCES UNETHICAL BEHAVIOR Marina Chernikova, Doctor of Philosophy, 2018 Dissertation directed by:Expand
Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases
Errors in probabilistic reasoning have been the focus of much psychology research and are among the original topics of modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on thisExpand
Successful structure learning from observational data
This work identifies two conditions that enable successful structure learning from observational data: people succeed if the underlying causal system is deterministic, and if each pattern of observations has a single root cause. Expand
Knowledge, belief, and egocentric bias
  • P. Dimmock
  • Psychology, Computer Science
  • Synthese
  • 2017
The nature of egocentric bias as it manifests in children and adults is clarified, and it is argued that appeal to egOCentric bias is ill-suited to respond to the problem cases for doxastic accounts. Expand
A blind man’s bluff: choice blindness in eyewitness testimony
According to an effect termed choice blindness (for a demonstration see http://bit.ly/1idqDg0) people have difficulty in detecting changes in the outcome of their own choices. In this dissertation weExpand
Dynamic dual process account explaining the bias after outcome – An exploratory research on memory distortion hindsight bias
When people attempt to recall their pre-feedback estimation of a general knowledge question, they are often biased toward the feedback. This is portrayed as hindsight bias (HB) memory distortionExpand
Judgments in causal chains: The impact of positive and negative motives and outcomes on lay attributions
Research on attributions about several events in causal chains has focused on chains ending in negative outcomes and has not examined positive outcomes and actions (e.g., Hilton, McClure, & Sutton,Expand


I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things
Abstract Judges who had estimated the likelihood of various possible outcomes of President Nixon's trips to Peking and Moscow were unexpectedly asked to remember, or reconstruct in the event thatExpand
Temporal Setting and Judgment under Uncertainty
Abstract : The study asks whether likelihood judgments for past events differ from those for otherwise similar future events, with all these sources of confounding undone. Subjects in past and futureExpand
Hindsight: Thinking Backward
Abstract : Is hindsight better than foresight or just different. The formal difference between the two tasks is the hindsightful judge's possession of outcome knowledge, telling him how things turnedExpand
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development. Expand
On Being Sane in Insane Places
It is clear that we cannot distinguish the sane from the insane in psychiatric hospitals. The hospital itself imposes a special environment in which the meanings of behavior can easily beExpand
“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you mayExpand
Deviance And Identity
Prologue to the Percheron Press Edition, Joel Best 1. Introduction: Ideological Matters 2. Introduction: Logical Matters I. The Deviant Act 3. The Defensive Deviant Act: Threat and Encapsulation 4.Expand
'Second Guessing' Important Events
Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision.
It would be reassuring to believe that Pearl Harbor was just a colossal and extraordinary blunder. What is disquieting is that it was a supremely "ordinary" blunder. It was a dramatic failure of aExpand
Psychosexual and marital problems.