Hindsight bias

  title={Hindsight bias},
  author={Hartmut Blank and Jochen Musch and R{\"u}diger F. Pohl},
  journal={Cognitive Illusions},
Evaluation of Financial Forecasts An empirical study of revenue forecast accuracy and bias within M&A
Prior research has found evidence of management forecast bias and accuracy to significantly differ across a number of determinants. However, little research has been carried out during non-normal
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Hindsight Bias And The Evaluation Of Strategic Performance
This article reviews the literature on hindsight bias and applies it to the context of strategic performance evaluation. Hindsight bias, the tendency for people to view an event as more foreseeable
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Cognitive Productivity: Using Knowledge to Become Profoundly Effective
The concepts of meta-effectiveness and effectance being both subtle and important, I am publishing in this document a few excerpts from my book (Cognitive Productivity) to elucidate them. You will
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...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements
Communicating uncertain experimental evidence.
Considering the causes of unexpected experimental results in foresight may improve the evaluation and communication of those results in hindsight, according to the participants in four experiments.


Increased or reversed? The effect of surprise on hindsight bias depends on the hindsight component.
  • S. Nestler, B. Egloff
  • Psychology
    Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
  • 2009
The present results strongly support the separate-components view of the hindsight bias, which argues that hindsight bias consists of 3 independent components: memory distortions, impressions of inevitability and impressions of foreseeability.
Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance
A theoretical model of hindsight bias is formulated, providing a foundation for empirical measures and implying that hindsight-biased agents learning about volatility will underestimate it.
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.
I Knew It All Along, Unless I Had to Work to Learn What I Know
After receiving knowledge regarding some topic, people usually overestimate their prior topic knowledge. Two experiments investigated whether people would claim less prior knowledge if they worked to
I knew it would happen,
  • Remembered probabilities of once-future things, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,
  • 1975
  • Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
  • 1982