Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?

  title={Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?},
  author={Ulrich Hoffrage and Ralph Hertwig and Gerd Gigerenzer},
  journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition},
  volume={26 3},
With the benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, people's recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested that this hindsight bias may be due to a reconstruction process of the prior judgment. A model of such a process is proposed that assumes that knowledge is updated after feedback and that reconstruction is based on the updated knowledge. Consistent with the model's predictions, the results of 2 studies… 

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