Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?
@article{Hoffrage2000HindsightBA, title={Hindsight bias: a by-product of knowledge updating?}, author={Ulrich Hoffrage and Ralph Hertwig and Gerd Gigerenzer}, journal={Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition}, year={2000}, volume={26 3}, pages={ 566-81 } }
With the benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, people's recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested that this hindsight bias may be due to a reconstruction process of the prior judgment. A model of such a process is proposed that assumes that knowledge is updated after feedback and that reconstruction is based on the updated knowledge. Consistent with the model's predictions, the results of 2 studies…Â
272 Citations
Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions
- PsychologyMemory
- 2003
The present paper addresses the ongoing debate as to whether the hindsight bias is due to memory impairment or biased reconstruction, and shows that the biased reconstruction approach provides a better explanation for empirical findings in hindsight bias research than does the memory impairment explanation.
Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past
- BusinessMemory
- 2003
It is observed that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias, and the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed.
Surprise, memory, and retrospective judgment making: testing cognitive reconstruction theories of the hindsight bias effect.
- PsychologyJournal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
- 2009
A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation, which were interpreted as supporting the general predictions of sense-making models of the hindsight bias.
The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias: A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias
- Psychology
- 2007
Hindsight bias is the well researched phenomenon that people falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. In recent years, several authors have…
COGNITIVE PROCESS MODELS OF HINDSIGHT BIAS
- Psychology
- 2007
This article reviews and compares three cognitive process models that relate hindsight bias to changes in an underlying knowledge base as a result of outcome feedback. Two of these models, SARA…
Not the same old hindsight bias: Outcome information distorts a broad range of retrospective judgments
- PsychologyMemory & cognition
- 2005
Experiment 2 showed that the effects of hindsight bias were diminished when participants engaged in private thought about the upcoming questions prior to receiving outcome information, suggesting that the effect is not due to impression management concerns.
Age Differences in Processes Underlying Hindsight Bias: A Life-Span Study
- Psychology
- 2018
ABSTRACT Hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s prior knowledge of a fact or event after learning the actual fact. Recent research has suggested that age-related differences in…
RECOLLECTION BIASES IN HINDSIGHT JUDGMENTS
- Psychology
- 2007
Outcome knowledge can affect hindsight judgments in two different ways. First, learning about the outcome of an event can impair recollection of one's own earlier predictions concerning this event.…
The Propensity Effect
- PsychologyPsychological science
- 2006
Findings revealed that the hindsight bias was more than doubled when computer animations, rather than text-plus-diagram descriptions, were used; these results have important legal implications.
References
SHOWING 1-10 OF 79 REFERENCES
What kind of bias is hindsight bias?
- Psychology
- 1998
Abstract When people are asked to recollect a former response after having received feedback information, their recollection tends to approach the feedback answer. This phenomenon is referred to as…
The Confidence-Hindsight Mirror Effect in Judgment: An Accuracy-Assessment Model for the Knew-It-All-Along Phenomenon
- Psychology
- 1998
This article presents a model for the "knew-it-all-along effect": the accuracy-assessment model. The model is based on the assumption that participants in hindsight studies use the strategy of trying…
Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction?
- Psychology
- 1996
The hindsight bias is the tendency for people to believe falsely that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Although there is a rich literature on hindsight…
Hindsight bias: An interaction of automatic and motivational factors?
- PsychologyMemory & cognition
- 1988
It is found that hindsight is less biased if reasons are given and if the correct information is provided at an earlier time, which rules out purely motivational and purely automatic explanations.
The Reiteration Effect in Hindsight Bias
- Psychology
- 1997
Repetition of an assertion increases the degree of belief in that assertion. This reiteration effect is used to explain two puzzling findings in research on hindsight bias. First, the reiteration…
Hindsight Bias: A Price Worth Paying for Fast and Frugal Memory
- Biology
- 1999
This chapter focuses on one, the well-known hindsight bias, and proposes a computational model for this effect based on a fast and frugal heuristic and provides empirical evidence that it is a by-product of two generally adaptive processes: first, updating knowledge after receiving new information; and second, drawing fast andfrugal inferences from this updated knowledge.
Decisions and memory: Differential retrievability of consistent and contradictory evidence
- Psychology
- 1984
On the Psychology of Experimental Surprises.
- Psychology
- 1977
Studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that reporting the outcome of a historical event increases the perceived likelihood of that outcome. Three experiments show that similar hindsight…