Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction?

  title={Hindsight bias: Impaired memory or biased reconstruction?},
  author={Dagmar Stahlberg and Anne Maass},
The hindsight bias is the tendency for people to believe falsely that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Although there is a rich literature on hindsight distortions, the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The present paper addresses the question whether hindsight distiortions represent the result of memory impairment or biased reconstruction processes. The majority of studies presented support the biased reconstruction view… 
Strength of hindsight bias as a consequence of meta-cognitions
The present paper addresses the ongoing debate as to whether the hindsight bias is due to memory impairment or biased reconstruction, and shows that the biased reconstruction approach provides a better explanation for empirical findings in hindsight bias research than does the memory impairment explanation.
Outcome knowledge can affect hindsight judgments in two different ways. First, learning about the outcome of an event can impair recollection of one's own earlier predictions concerning this event.
The Role of Surprise in Hindsight Bias: A Metacognitive Model of Reduced and Reversed Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the well researched phenomenon that people falsely believe that they would have correctly predicted the outcome of an event once it is known. In recent years, several authors have
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Hindsight bias can be considered a type of memory distortion. In this article we compare hindsight bias to two other types of memory distortion, the misinformation effect and the experimental
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Multinomial model-based analyses show age differences in both recollection bias and reconstruction bias when the correct judgment was in working memory during the recall phase.
The Hindsight Bias: Judgment Task Differentiation
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A multiprocess account of hindsight bias in children.
The results support a multiprocess explanation of hindsight bias in children and show that the youngest group showed memory impairment caused by the presentation of the correct answers as well as an increased belief that they knew the correct Answers all along.


Misinformation and memory: the creation of new memories.
It is argued that misinformation acceptance has not received the appreciation that it deserves as a phenomenon worthy of the authors' sustained investigation, and may not tell us anything about impairment of memories, but it does tell us something about the creation of new memories.
Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis
When individuals learn the outcome of an event or the correct answer to a question, they overestimate its prior predictability: that is, they tend to believe they “knew it all along.” Cognitive and
Hindsight bias and the misinformation effect: separating blended recollections from other recollection types.
A minimum memory-trace strength of the original information must be met for blended recollections to occur, and hindsight bias and the misinformation effect--though superficially similar--are induced by different cognitive processes.
Eliminating the hindsight bias.
Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate this hindsight bias
Hindsight and Causality
When people know how an event turned out, they are usually unable to reproduce the judgments they would have made without outcome knowledge. Furthermore, they are unaware of their inability to
We Knew It All Along: Hindsight Bias in Groups
Two studies investigated the occurrence of hindsight distortion in groups as compared to individuals. Competing predictions were derived from four theoretical positions: Memory impairment, response
Influences of misleading postevent information: misinformation interference and acceptance.
  • R. Belli
  • Biology, Psychology
    Journal of experimental psychology. General
  • 1989
In two experiments, a retrieval test sensitive to both biasing effects of misinformation (mis information acceptance) and influences of the misinformation on memory (misinformation interference) was used, and one of the experiments suggested that misinformation interferes with the ability to remember the original event.
Hindsight bias: An interaction of automatic and motivational factors?
It is found that hindsight is less biased if reasons are given and if the correct information is provided at an earlier time, which rules out purely motivational and purely automatic explanations.