Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

@article{Hertwig2003HindsightBH,
  title={Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past},
  author={Ralph Hertwig and Carola Fanselow and Ulrich Hoffrage},
  journal={Memory},
  year={2003},
  volume={11},
  pages={357 - 377}
}
Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of… 

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