Hindsight Bias

  title={Hindsight Bias},
  author={Neal J. Roese and Kathleen D. Vohs},
  journal={Perspectives on Psychological Science},
  pages={411 - 426}
  • N. Roese, K. Vohs
  • Published 1 September 2012
  • Psychology
  • Perspectives on Psychological Science
Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along,” that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events’ objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one’s own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be… 

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The present results strongly support the separate-components view of the hindsight bias, which argues that hindsight bias consists of 3 independent components: memory distortions, impressions of inevitability and impressions of foreseeability.