• Corpus ID: 219402022

Hierarchical robust aggregation of sales forecasts at aggregated levels in e-commerce, based on exponential smoothing and Holt's linear trend method

@article{Huard2020HierarchicalRA,
  title={Hierarchical robust aggregation of sales forecasts at aggregated levels in e-commerce, based on exponential smoothing and Holt's linear trend method},
  author={Malo Huard and R{\'e}my Garnier and Gilles Stoltz},
  journal={arXiv: Applications},
  year={2020}
}
We revisit the interest of classical statistical techniques for sales forecasting like exponential smoothing and extensions thereof (as Holt's linear trend method). We do so by considering ensemble forecasts, given by several instances of these classical techniques tuned with different (sets of) parameters, and by forming convex combinations of the elements of ensemble forecasts over time, in a robust and sequential manner. The machine-learning theory behind this is called "robust online… 
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