Hidden Markov Models for the Activity Profile of Terrorist Groups

@article{Raghavan2013HiddenMM,
  title={Hidden Markov Models for the Activity Profile of Terrorist Groups},
  author={Vasanthan Raghavan and Aram Galstyan and Alexander G. Tartakovsky},
  journal={ArXiv},
  year={2013},
  volume={abs/1207.1497}
}
  • Vasanthan Raghavan, Aram Galstyan, Alexander G. Tartakovsky
  • Published in ArXiv 2013
  • Computer Science, Mathematics, Physics
  • The main focus of this work is on developing models for the activity profile of a terrorist group, detecting sudden spurts and downfalls in this profile, and, in general, tracking it over a period of time. Toward this goal, a $d$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) that captures the latent states underlying the dynamics of the group and thus its activity profile is developed. The simplest setting of $d=2$ corresponds to the case where the dynamics are coarsely quantized as Active and Inactive… CONTINUE READING

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