HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations.


Thirty years after the discovery of HIV-1, the early transmission, dissemination, and establishment of the virus in human populations remain unclear. Using statistical approaches applied to HIV-1 sequence data from central Africa, we show that from the 1920s Kinshasa (in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo) was the focus of early transmission and the source of pre-1960 pandemic viruses elsewhere. Location and dating estimates were validated using the earliest HIV-1 archival sample, also from Kinshasa. The epidemic histories of HIV-1 group M and nonpandemic group O were similar until ~1960, after which group M underwent an epidemiological transition and outpaced regional population growth. Our results reconstruct the early dynamics of HIV-1 and emphasize the role of social changes and transport networks in the establishment of this virus in human populations.

DOI: 10.1126/science.1256739
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@article{Faria2014HIVET, title={HIV epidemiology. The early spread and epidemic ignition of HIV-1 in human populations.}, author={Nuno Rodrigues Faria and Andrew Rambaut and Marc A. Suchard and Guy Baele and Trevor Bedford and Melissa J. Ward and Andrew J. Tatem and Jo{\~a}o Dinis Sousa and Nimalan Arinaminpathy and Jacques P{\'e}pin and David Posada and Martine Peeters and Oliver G. Pybus and Philippe Lemey}, journal={Science}, year={2014}, volume={346 6205}, pages={56-61} }