Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choice of the High School Track∗

Abstract

Predicting group decisions under uncertainty involves the empirically challenging task of disentangling the utilities the group members individually attach to the choice outcomes, their subjective probabilities, and the group decision process. This article presents and estimates simple Bayesian models of child-parent choice of the high school track, with subjective risk and multiple–unilateral or multilateral– decision processes, where identification is achieved by combining standard data on the families’ actual choices with novel survey information about the children’s and parents’ subjective probabilities of outcomes, their individually preferred choices, and their roles in the decision. Counterfactual analysis of enrollment responses to hypothetical policies affecting probabilistic beliefs of children, parents, or both, indicates that the identity of policy targets matters for prediction and underscores the importance of introducing individual members’ beliefs and decision roles in models of group decision and in policy analysis. [JEL codes: C25, C35, C50, C71, C81, C83, D19, D81, D84, I29, J24.] [

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{Giustinelli2012GroupDM, title={Group Decision Making with Uncertain Outcomes: Unpacking Child-Parent Choice of the High School Track∗}, author={Pamela Giustinelli and Peter S. Arcidiacono and H{\'e}ctor F. Calvo Pardo and Ivan Canay and Matias D. Cattaneo and Damon H. Clark and Adeline Delavande and Jon Gemus}, year={2012} }