Graph-Coupled HMMs for Modeling the Spread of Infection

  title={Graph-Coupled HMMs for Modeling the Spread of Infection},
  author={Wen Dong and Alex Pentland and Katherine A. Heller},
We develop Graph-Coupled Hidden Markov Models (GCHMMs) for modeling the spread of infectious disease locally within a social network. Unlike most previous research in epidemiology, which typically models the spread of infection at the level of entire populations, we successfully leverage mobile phone data collected from 84 people over an extended period of time to model the spread of infection on an individual level. Our model, the GCHMM, is an extension of widely-used Coupled Hidden Markov… CONTINUE READING
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