• Corpus ID: 248965437

Global temperature projections from a statistical energy balance model using multiple sources of historical data

@inproceedings{Bennedsen2022GlobalTP,
  title={Global temperature projections from a statistical energy balance model using multiple sources of historical data},
  author={Mikkel Bennedsen and Eric Hillebrand and Jingying Zhou Lykke},
  year={2022}
}
This paper estimates the two-component energy balance model as a linear state space system (EBM-SS model) using historical data. It is a joint model for the temperature in the mixed layer, the temperature in the deep ocean layer, and radiative forcing. The EBM-SS model allows for the modeling of non-stationarity in forcing, the incorporation of multiple data sources for the latent processes, and the handling of missing observations. We estimate the EBM-SS model using observational datasets at… 

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 75 REFERENCES
Towards Bayesian hierarchical inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity from a combination of CMIP5 climate models and observational data
Despite decades of research, large multi-model uncertainty remains about the Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide forcing as inferred from state-of-the-art Earth system models
Understanding the links between climate feedbacks, variability and change using a two-layer energy balance model
A simple, two-layer energy balance model (EBM) is used to investigate climate variability in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and examine possible links between
Optimal Estimation of Stochastic Energy Balance Model Parameters
This study has developed a rigorous and efficient maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters in stochastic energy balance models (with any k > 0 number of boxes) given time series of
Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms
By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or
Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments
This is the first part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) within the framework of a two-layer
Climate variability from annual to multi-decadal timescales in a two-layer stochastic energy balance model: analytic solutions and implications for general circulation models
Abstract A low-order stochastically forced two-layer global energy balance model (EBM) admitting an analytical solution is developed for studying natural inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal
Energy Balance Climate Models
An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative
On the cold start problem in transient simulations with coupled atmosphere-ocean models
Finite computer resources force compromises in the design of transient numerical experiments with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models which, in the case of global warming simulations,
Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World
AbstractCurrent state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations, it is standard practice
An Updated Assessment of Near‐Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set
We present a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set, HadCRUT5. HadCRUT5 presents monthly average near‐surface temperature anomalies,
...
...