Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under future land-use-change scenarios

  title={Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under future land-use-change scenarios},
  author={Ryan P. Powers and Walter Jetz},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
  • R. PowersW. Jetz
  • Published 1 April 2019
  • Environmental Science
  • Nature Climate Change
Habitat transformations caused by human land-use change are considered major drivers of ongoing biodiversity loss1–3, and their impact on biodiversity is expected to increase further this century4–6. Here, we used global decadal land-use projections to year 2070 for a range of shared socioeconomic pathways, which are linked to particular representative concentration pathways, to evaluate potential losses in range-wide suitable habitat and extinction risks for approximately 19,400 species of… 

Historical and projected future range sizes of the world’s mammals, birds, and amphibians

This work uses reconstructions of global land use and biomes since 1700, and 16 possible climatic and socio-economic scenarios until the year 2100, to map the habitat ranges of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species through time, revealing that range losses have been increasing disproportionately in relation to the area of destroyed habitat.

Exposure of mammal genetic diversity to mid‐21st century global change

Accelerating climate and land-use change are rapidly transforming Earth’s biodiversity. While there is substantial evidence on the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to global change at the

Time‐lagged effects of habitat fragmentation on terrestrial mammals in Madagascar

Biodiversity is severely threatened by habitat destruction. As a consequence of habitat destruction, the remaining habitat becomes more fragmented. This results in time‐lagged population extirpations

Range-wide habitat use and Key Biodiversity Area coverage for a lowland tropical forest raptor across an increasingly deforested landscape

Modelled area of habitat estimates as described here are a useful tool for large-scale conservation planning and can be readily applied to many taxa.

Ecological impact assessment of climate change and habitat loss on wetland vertebrate assemblages of the Great Barrier Reef catchment and the influence of survey bias

Bias of survey records toward urban centers strongly influenced the ability to model wetland‐affiliated vertebrates and may obscure the understanding of how vertebrates respond to habitat loss and climate change, which reinforces the need for randomized and systematic surveys to supplement existing ad hoc surveys.

How exposure to land use impacts and climate change may prune the tetrapod tree of life

Human domination of landscapes is a key driver of biodiversity loss, with the fingerprint of climate change becoming increasingly pronounced. Frameworks and tools for identifying threats to

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Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change.

Reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur.



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Although climate change will severely affect biodiversity, in the near future, land-use change in tropical countries may lead to yet greater species loss, so a vastly expanded reserve network in the tropics will be needed to minimize global extinctions.

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century

  • C. RondininiP. Visconti
  • Environmental Science
    Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
  • 2015
A hierarchical framework was used to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range and the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals.

Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity

A terrestrial assemblage database of unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage is analysed to quantify local biodiversity responses to land use and related changes and shows that in the worst-affected habitats, pressures reduce within-sample species richness by an average of 76.5%, total abundance by 39.5% and rarefaction-based richness by 40.3%.

Global forest loss disproportionately erodes biodiversity in intact landscapes

Deforestation substantially increased the odds of a species being listed as threatened, undergoing recent upgrading to a higher threat category and exhibiting declining populations, and it was shown that these risks were disproportionately high in relatively intact landscapes.

Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity

Recent attempts at projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity have used the IUCN Red List Criteria to obtain estimates of extinction rates based on projected range shifts. In these studies,

Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios

  • T. Newbold
  • Environmental Science
    Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
  • 2018
It is predicted that climate-change effects are likely to become a major pressure on biodiversity in the coming decades, probably matching or exceeding the effects of land-use change by 2070.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

The climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible, and highlights the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grasslandSongbirds in the face of climate change.

Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, aranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Bushmeat hunting and extinction risk to the world's mammals

An analysis showing that bushmeat hunting for mostly food and medicinal products is driving a global crisis whereby 301 terrestrial mammal species are threatened with extinction, and proposes a multi-pronged conservation strategy to help save threatened mammals from immediate extinction and avoid a collapse of food security for hundreds of millions of people.

Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals

A global, fine-scale analysis of patterns of species richness is conducted, finding that the richness of mammal species estimated by the overlap of their suitable habitat is on average one-third less than that estimated by their geographical ranges.