Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt

  title={Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt},
  author={Nicholas R. Golledge and Elizabeth D. Keller and Natalya Gomez and Kaitlin A. Naughten and Jorge Bernales and Luke D. Trusel and Tamsin L. Edwards},
Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by… 
Antarctic ice sheet - climate feedbacks under high future carbon emissions
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed
Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming
The results demonstrate a need to accurately account for meltwater input from ice sheets in order to make confident climate predictions, and show the projected loss of Arctic winter sea ice and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are delayed by several decades.
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica.
The results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded, and show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today's throughout the twenty-first century.
Antarctic iceberg impacts on future Southern Hemisphere climate
Future iceberg and meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) could substantially exceed present levels, with strong implications for future climate and sea levels. Recent climate model
Long‐term projections of sea‐level rise from ice sheets
  • N. Golledge
  • Environmental Science
    WIREs Climate Change
  • 2020
Under future climate change scenarios it is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise. But the rate at which this occurs, and the height and time at which it might stabilize,
Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice-shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)
Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art
The role of history and strength of the oceanic forcing in sea level projections from Antarctica with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model
Abstract. Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet constitutes the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. Ocean-driven melting underneath the floating ice shelves and subsequent
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ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to
The influence of emissions scenarios on future Antarctic ice loss is unlikely to emerge this century
Of all the components of the global sea-level budget, the future contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the most uncertain in sea-level rise projections. Dynamic ice sheet model simulations show


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A large ensemble simulation of the CMIP5 model ‘GFDL ESM2M’ that accounts for RCP8.5-projected Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater finds that accounting for meltwater delays the exceedance of the maximum global-mean atmospheric warming targets by more than a decade and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.
The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise
A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is used to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment to sea-level rise.
Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios
Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here
Ice-dynamic projections of the Greenland ice sheet in response to atmospheric and oceanic warming
Abstract. Continuing global warming will have a strong impact on the Greenland ice sheet in the coming centuries. During the last decade (2000–2010), both increased melt-water runoff and enhanced ice
Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations
It is suggested that upper-bound estimates from low-resolution models and physical arguments are implausible under current understanding of physical mechanisms and potential triggers of marine-ice-sheet instability.
The effect of increased fresh water from Antarctic ice shelves on future trends in Antarctic sea ice
Abstract Observations show that, in contrast to the Arctic, the area of Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979. A potential driver of this significant increase relates to the mass loss of the
Antarctic climate and ice sheet configuration during a peak-warmth Early Pliocene interglacial
The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
There is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty, and the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques.
The Response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Sea Ice to Freshwater from Ice Shelves in an Earth System Model
ABSTRACTThe possibility that recent Antarctic sea ice expansion resulted from an increase in freshwater reaching the Southern Ocean is investigated here. The freshwater flux from ice sheet and ice
Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma
Abstract. The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions