German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

  title={German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013},
  author={Andreas Graefe},
  journal={German Politics},
  pages={195 - 204}
  • A. Graefe
  • Published 1 January 2015
  • Environmental Science
  • German Politics
The present study reviews the accuracy of four methods for forecasting the 2013 German election: polls; prediction markets; expert judgement; and quantitative models. On average, across the two months prior to the election, polls were most accurate, with a mean absolute error of 1.4 percentage points, followed by quantitative models (1.6), expert judgement (2.1) and prediction markets (2.3). In addition, the study provides new evidence for the benefits of combining forecasts. Averaging all… 

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