Geographic and temporal development of plagues

@article{Noble1974GeographicAT,
  title={Geographic and temporal development of plagues},
  author={Joseph Veach Noble},
  journal={Nature},
  year={1974},
  volume={250},
  pages={726-729}
}
ALTHOUGH deterministic and stochastic descriptions of localised epidemics abound in the literature of epidemiology and quantitative biology1,2, the geographic spread of epidemics has not been analyzed in such detail. (Although in ref. 2, page 205, Bailey gives equations similar in spirit to my equation (1) they seem to lack physical significance.) Realistic mathematical models of the geotemporal development of plagues could be useful in the study of epizootics (that is, in ecology, wildlife… 
Geographical Distributions and Spatial Equilibrium in Historical Epidemics of the United States
TLDR
The analysis uses United States state-level data for several common infectious diseases of the 1950s, and results show geographical equilibrium distributions for several epidemics that are not predicted by the most commonly used epidemiological models but are consistent with observed geographical disparities in disease prevalence.
Bubonic plague: a metapopulation model of a zoonosis
  • M. Keeling, C. Gilligan
  • Biology
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences
  • 2000
TLDR
Some key variables of the deterministic model, including the force of infection to humans, are shown to be robust to changes in the basic parameters, although variation in the flea searching efficiency, and the movement rates of rats and fleas will be considered throughout the paper.
The geographical spread of influenza
TLDR
Analysis of weekly reports obtained from a network of general practitioners spanning the entire French territory allows the analysis of the spatio–temporal dynamics of influenza over a fine spatial scale to indicate that diffusion over long distances is so quick that homogeneous global mixing occurs before the epidemic builds up within infected patches.
Modelling outbreak control for pneumonic plague
TLDR
The results of the study indicate that the rapidity of onset of interventions has the largest effect on the final size of the epidemic, followed by wearing masks, treating contacts preventively and quarantine.
The Geographic Spread of Influenza
How infectious diseases spread in space within one cycle of an epidemic is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to
Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics
TLDR
The dispersal of West Nile virus is greater and far more variable than previously measured, such that its dissemination was critically determined by rare, long-range movements that are unlikely to be discerned during field observations.
A Spatio-temporal Epidemic Model for Influenza
A mathematical model is built for influenza or other similar disease epidemics in a multi-region setting. The model is an extended type of chain-binomial model applied to a large population (Cliff et
Spatial dynamics and genetics of infectious diseases on heterogeneous landscapes
TLDR
The manner in which the physical organization of the landscape has been shown to influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of host–pathogen interactions is reviewed, and how landscape architecture might be incorporated into spatially explicit population models of the infectious disease process is reviewed.
Pattern formation of an epidemic model with diffusion
TLDR
Spatial pattern of an epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rates is investigated and force of infection, namely β, plays an important role in the spatial pattern and mathematical analysis and numerical results well extend the finding of pattern formation in the epidemic models.
Initiation and spread of traveling waves of plague, Yersinia pestis, in the western United States.
TLDR
These analyses identify important large-scale trends regarding the eastward invasion of plague into the continental United States that can be used to better understand the historical spread of plague, as well as how to manage threats from new or re-emerging diseases that might operate under similar spatio-temporal dynamics.
...
...