Geographic Profiling from Kinetic Models of Criminal Behavior

  title={Geographic Profiling from Kinetic Models of Criminal Behavior},
  author={George O. Mohler and Martin B. Short},
  journal={SIAM J. Appl. Math.},
We consider the problem of estimating the probability density of the “anchor point” (residence, place of work, etc.) of a criminal offender given a set of observed spatial locations of crimes committed by the offender. Starting from kinetic models of criminal motion and target selection, we derive the probability density of anchor points using the Fokker–Planck equation and Bayes' theorem. Here, geographic inhomogeneities such as housing densities and geographic barriers (bodies of water, parks… 

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