Future progress in artificial intelligence: a poll among experts

@article{Mller2014FuturePI,
  title={Future progress in artificial intelligence: a poll among experts},
  author={Vincent C. M{\"u}ller and Nick Bostrom},
  journal={AI Matters},
  year={2014},
  volume={1},
  pages={9-11}
}
In some quarters, there is intense concern about high--level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity; in other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high--level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time--frame, which risks they see with that development… 
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