Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice

@article{Holland2006FutureAR,
  title={Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice},
  author={Marika M. Holland and Cecilia M. Bitz and Bruno Tremblay},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
  year={2006},
  volume={33}
}
We examine the trajectory of Arctic summer sea ice in seven projections from the Community Climate System Model and find that abrupt reductions are a common feature of these 21st century simulations. These events have decreasing September ice extent trends that are typically 4 times larger than comparable observed trends. One event exhibits a decrease from 6 million km2 to 2 million km2 in a decade, reaching near ice‐free September conditions by 2040. In the simulations, ice retreat accelerates… 

Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice

We examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice‐free summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. We find that ice extent

Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat

Abstract. The retreat of Arctic sea ice is frequently considered to be a possible driver of changes in climate extremes in the Arctic and possibly down to mid-latitudes. However, it remains unclear

Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science

Abstract Over the period of modern satellite observations, Arctic sea-ice extent at the end of the melt season (September) has declined at a rate of >11% per decade, and there is evidence that the

Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean

The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a

Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?

Two IPCC fourth assessment report climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become sea‐ice‐free year around in 1%/year CO2 increase to quadrupling experiments. These runs are examined for

Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment

Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover

Although the large scatter between individual model simulations leads to much uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean might be realized, this transition to a new arctic state may be rapid once the ice thins to a more vulnerable state.

Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss

Coupled climate models and recent observational evidence suggest that Arctic sea ice may undergo abrupt periods of loss during the next fifty years. Here, we evaluate how rapid sea ice loss affects

The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis

The sequence of extreme September sea ice extent minima over the past decade suggests acceleration in the response of the Arctic sea ice cover to external forcing, hastening the ongoing transition

Analysis of Arctic Sea Ice Anomalies in a Coupled Model Control Simulation

In a 600-year control run simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, three events of extraordinary minimum September sea ice
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 41 REFERENCES

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.

A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations.

Does the Arctic sea ice have a tipping point?

Two IPCC fourth assessment report climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become sea‐ice‐free year around in 1%/year CO2 increase to quadrupling experiments. These runs are examined for

Recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice simulated by the HadCM3 AOGCM

The HadCM3 AOGCM has been used to undertake an ensemble of four integrations from 1860 to 1999 with forcings due to all major anthropogenic and natural climate factors. The simulated decreasing trend

The thinning of Arctic sea ice, 1988-2003 : Have we passed a tipping point?

Recent observations of summer Arctic sea ice over the satellite era show that record or near-record lows for the ice extent occurred in the years 2002–05. To determine the physical processes

Toward a Seasonally Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 Model Simulations

Abstract The sea ice simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models for the climate of the twentieth century and for global warming scenarios

Simulated Arctic Ocean Freshwater Budgets in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

The Arctic Ocean freshwater budgets in climate model integrations of the twentieth and twenty-first century are examined. An ensemble of six members of the Community Climate System Model version 3

The Influence of Sea Ice on Ocean Heat Uptake in Response to Increasing CO2

Two significant changes in ocean heat uptake that occur in the vicinity of sea ice cover in response to increasing CO2 are investigated with Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): a deep

Variability of the Intermediate Atlantic Water of the Arctic Ocean over the Last 100 Years

Recent observations show dramatic changes of the Arctic atmosphere‐ice‐ocean system, including a rapid warming in the intermediate Atlantic water of the Arctic Ocean. Here it is demonstrated through

Satellite Evidence for an Arctic Sea Ice Cover in Transformation.

There appears to be a strong correlation between the area of multiyear ice and the spatially averaged thickness of the perennial ice pack, which suggests that the satellite-derived areal decreases represent substantial rather than only peripheral changes.