Corpus ID: 20520446

Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections

@inproceedings{Hummel2013FundamentalMF,
  title={Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections},
  author={P. Hummel},
  year={2013}
}
  • P. Hummel
  • Published 2013
  • This paper develops new fundamental models for forecasting presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections at the state level using fundamental data. Despite the fact that our models can be used to make forecasts of elections earlier than existing models and they do not use data from polls on voting intentions, our models have lower out-of-sample forecasting errors than existing models. Our models also provide early and accurate probabilities of victory. We obtain this accuracy by… CONTINUE READING
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