On the calculation of the bounds of probability of events using infinite random sets
- Diego A. Alvarez
- Int. J. Approx. Reasoning
The paper addresses basic issues concerning the interpretation of probability in the probabilistic safety concept. Using a simple geotechnical design problem we demonstrate that the failure probability depends in an extremely sensitive way on the choice of input distribution function. We conclude that the failure probability has no meaning as a frequency of failure. It supplies, however, a useful means for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest a number of alternatives, as interval probability or fuzzy sets, which serve the same purpose in a more robust way.