From Probability to Fuzzy Sets: the Struggle for Meaning in Geotechnical Risk Assessment

Abstract

The paper addresses basic issues concerning the interpretation of probability in the probabilistic safety concept. Using a simple geotechnical design problem we demonstrate that the failure probability depends in an extremely sensitive way on the choice of input distribution function. We conclude that the failure probability has no meaning as a frequency of failure. It supplies, however, a useful means for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest a number of alternatives, as interval probability or fuzzy sets, which serve the same purpose in a more robust way.

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Cite this paper

@inproceedings{OberguggenbergerFromPT, title={From Probability to Fuzzy Sets: the Struggle for Meaning in Geotechnical Risk Assessment}, author={Michael Oberguggenberger and Wolfgang Fellin} }