From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right

  title={From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right},
  author={Bent Flyvbjerg},
  journal={Project Management Journal},
  pages={15 - 5}
  • B. Flyvbjerg
  • Published 1 August 2006
  • Engineering
  • Project Management Journal
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk based on theories of decision-making under uncertainty, which won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a… 
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