From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right

@article{Flyvbjerg2013FromNP,
  title={From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right},
  author={B. Flyvbjerg},
  journal={Project Management Journal},
  year={2013},
  volume={37},
  pages={15 - 5}
}
  • B. Flyvbjerg
  • Published 2013
  • Economics, Computer Science
  • Project Management Journal
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk based on theories of decision-making under uncertainty, which won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project management. Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a… Expand
323 Citations

Topics from this paper

Combination of Project Cost Forecasts in Earned Value Management
  • 45
  • Highly Influenced
Estimation of Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection
  • 10
  • PDF
Practical Application and Empirical Evaluation of Reference Class Forecasting for Project Management
  • 15
  • Highly Influenced
  • PDF
Underestimation of Project Costs
  • 2
  • Highly Influenced
  • PDF
Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View
  • 136
  • PDF
Simulation of Investment Returns of Toll Projects
  • 4
  • Highly Influenced
  • PDF
...
1
2
3
4
5
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 37 REFERENCES
How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation
  • 669
  • PDF
Megaprojects and Risk. An Anatomy of Ambition
  • 704
  • PDF
What Causes Cost Overrun in Transport Infrastructure Projects?
  • 528
  • PDF
Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives' decisions.
  • 589
  • PDF
Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy
  • 203
Testing the Tea Leaves: Evaluating the Validity of Forecasts
  • 8
...
1
2
3
4
...