Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach

  title={Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach},
  author={E. Haggerty Stephen and Adrian E. Raffery and Paul Dowding},
  journal={International Journal of Biometeorology},
Fungal basidiospores andCladosporium spores are the two most numerous spore types in the air of Dublin and its surroundings. They are known to have allergenic components, and the aim of the study described here is to develop a predictive model for these spores. A very simple model, which combines an estimated diurnal rhythm with a simple, one-parameter time series model, provided golld short-term forecasts. The one-step prediction error variance was reduced by 88% forCladosporium spores and by… 

Prediction of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations from the meteorological forecast and artificial neural network in L’Aquila, Abruzzo (Central Italy)

In a previous work a 1-year time series of fungal spore concentrations was used to calibrate an artificial neural network for the estimation of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations associated with

Mapping of Alternaria and Pleospora concentrations in Central Italy using meteorological forecast and neural network estimator

Airborne particles (pollens and fungal spores) are recognized as important causes of allergies and many other pathologies whose main symptoms are usually associated with respiratory problems. In

Seasonal Variations in Airborne Cladosporium and Alternaria Spp. Conidia in Eskişehir

The conidia of allergenic Cladosporium and Alternaria spp. were counted by using a Durham sampler at five sampling points during one year and the relationship between the numbers of conidia and

Atmospheric concentrations of Alternaria, Cladosporium, Ganoderma and Didymella spores monitored in Cork (Ireland) and Worcester (England) during the summer of 2010

The results suggest that the aeromycological profile is quite uniform over the British Isles, but a description of bioaerosols with respect to overall load and daily concentration can be quite diverse although the geographical difference between sites is relatively small.

Studies on the Concentration of Ramularia beticola Conidia in the Air Above Sugar Beet fields in Denmark

Concentrations of Ramularia beticola Faut. & Lamb. conidia in the air above 3 sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.) fields were registered for a period of 41 days altogether. A significant diurnal

Use of neural networks to short-term forecast of airborne pollen data

In the last two decades the allergic diseases inducted by allergenic pollen have dramatically increased, as well as the severity of allergic symptoms; consequently, the social cost of pollen related

Functional relationships between airborne fungal spores and enviromental factors in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario, as detected by Canonical correspondence analysis

Abstract Outdoor air-sampling surveys were conducted in February, May, August and December 1992 with a Samplair-MK1 particle sampler at 50 randomly chosen sites in the Kitchener-Waterloo area of

Influence of urban climate upon distribution of airborne Deuteromycete spore concentrations in Mexico City

Abstract The effect of an urban climate upon the spatial and temporal distribution of Deuteromycete spores was studied during 1991 using Burkard volumetric spore traps in two areas of Mexico City

Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting of the Pollen Season

The section about monitoring covers the development of phenological networks, remote sensing of the season cycle of the vegetation, the emergence of the science of aerobiology and, more specifically,

Contribution of fungi to primary biogenic aerosols in the atmosphere: wet and dry discharged spores, carbohydrates, and inorganic ions

Biogenic aerosols play important roles in atmospheric chemistry physics, the biosphere, climate, and public health. Here, we show that fungi which actively discharge their spores with liquids into



Changes in atmospheric spore content: Diurnal periodicity and the effects of weather

Effect of temperature and humidity on ballistospore discharge


The following charts summarise the data obtained from continuous air sampling hy the Hirst automatic volumetric spore trap at the Wright-Fleming Institute, Ivondon, England.

Atmospheric pollen grains and spores in relation to allergy. II

  • H. A. Hyde
  • Environmental Science
    Clinical allergy
  • 1973
Diurnal (circadian) periodicity in the concentrations of various kinds of pollen grains and fungal spores outdoors during their respective seasons and with the indoor aerospora of houses, hospitals and certain industrial locations is discussed.

Atmospheric pollen and spores in relation to allergy. I

The multitude of seeds produced by an Agaric or a Boletus is innumerable; yet not one in ten thousand answers the purpose of propagation.

Time series analysis

Time series analysis, forecasting and control

This revision of a classic, seminal, and authoritative book explores the building of stochastic models for time series and their use in important areas of application —forecasting, model specification, estimation, and checking, transfer function modeling of dynamic relationships, modeling the effects of intervention events, and process control.

Microbiology of the Atmosphere