Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning

@article{Berk2009ForecastingMW,
  title={Forecasting murder within a population of probationers and parolees: a high stakes application of statistical learning},
  author={Richard A. Berk and Lawrence W. Sherman and Geoffrey Carroll Barnes and Ellen Kurtz and Lindsay Ahlman},
  journal={Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
  year={2009},
  volume={172}
}
Summary.  Forecasts of future dangerousness are often used to inform the sentencing decisions of convicted offenders. For individuals who are sentenced to probation or paroled to community supervision, such forecasts affect the conditions under which they are to be supervised. The statistical criterion for these forecasts is commonly called recidivism, which is defined as a charge or conviction for any new offence, no matter how minor. Only rarely do such forecasts make distinctions on the… 
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