Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average

  title={Forecasting for intermittent demand: the estimation of an unbiased average},
  author={Estelle A. Shale and John E. Boylan and F. R. Johnston},
The majority of the range of items held by many stockists exhibit intermittent demand. Accurate forecasting of the issue rate for such items is important and several methods have been developed, but all produce biased forecasts to a greater or lesser degree. This paper derives the bias expected when the order arrivals follows a Poisson process, which leads to a correction factor for application in practice. Extensions to some other arrival processes are briefly considered. Journal of the… CONTINUE READING
Highly Cited
This paper has 24 citations. REVIEW CITATIONS

From This Paper

Figures, tables, and topics from this paper.


Publications citing this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 14 extracted citations


Publications referenced by this paper.
Showing 1-10 of 18 references

Forecasting and stock control for intermittent demands

  • JD Croston
  • Opl Res Q
  • 1972
Highly Influential
3 Excerpts

The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates

  • AA Syntetos, JE Boylan
  • Int J Forecasting
  • 2005
2 Excerpts

Intermittent demand forecasting: size-interval methods based on averaging and smoothing

  • JE Boylan, AA Syntetos
  • Proceedings of the International Conference on…
  • 2003
2 Excerpts

On the bias of intermittent demand estimates

  • AA Syntetos, JE Boylan
  • Int J Prod Econ
  • 2001
3 Excerpts

Statistical Distributions, 3rd edn, Wiley: New York

  • M Evans, N Hastings, B Peacock
  • 2000
1 Excerpt

Some properties of simple moving averages when applied to forecasting a time series

  • FR Johnston, JE Boylan, M Meadows, EA Shale
  • J Opl Res Soc
  • 1999
1 Excerpt

On the demand distributions of slow moving items

  • HW Kwan
  • 1991
1 Excerpt

Time to sell a given quantity of stock

  • RM Hill, WK Odoni
  • J Opl Res Soc
  • 1988
1 Excerpt

Similar Papers

Loading similar papers…