Corpus ID: 7429375

Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples : a comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls

@article{Gaissmaier2011ForecastingEW,
  title={Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples : a comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls},
  author={Wolfgang Gaissmaier and Julian N. Marewski},
  journal={Judgment and Decision Making},
  year={2011},
  volume={6},
  pages={73-88}
}
  • Wolfgang Gaissmaier, Julian N. Marewski
  • Published 2011
  • Economics
  • Judgment and Decision Making
  • We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naive recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens’ recognition of part y names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from representative samples of citizens’ voting intentions, and to (i i) simple—and typically very accurate—wisdom-of-crowds-forecasts computed from the same convenience samples of citizens’ aggregated hunches about… CONTINUE READING

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