Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small , lousy samples : A comparison of collective recognition , wisdom of crowds , and representative polls

@inproceedings{Gaissmaier2011ForecastingEW,
  title={Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small , lousy samples : A comparison of collective recognition , wisdom of crowds , and representative polls},
  author={Wolfgang Gaissmaier and Julian N. Marewski},
  year={2011}
}
We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for re cognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naïve recognition-based election forecasts compute d from convenience samples of citizens’ recognition of part y names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from repre sentative samples of citizens’ voting intentions, and to (i i) simple—and typically very accurate—wisdom-of-crowds-fo recasts computed from the same convenience samples of citizens’ aggregated hunches… CONTINUE READING
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