Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

  title={Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research},
  author={J. Scott Armstrong},
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on extrapolation. Meanwhile, simple methods and the combination of forecasts are recommended. 
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