Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution

@article{BarJoseph2013ForecastingAH,
  title={Forecasting a Hurricane: Israeli and American Estimations of the Khomeini Revolution},
  author={Uri Bar-Joseph},
  journal={Journal of Strategic Studies},
  year={2013},
  volume={36},
  pages={718 - 742}
}
  • Uri Bar-Joseph
  • Published 2013
  • Political Science
  • Journal of Strategic Studies
Abstract The surprising ‘Arab Spring’ raises the question as to what would enable national intelligence to provide high quality warnings prior to the eruption of popular revolutions. This article uses new sources of evidence to trace and explain Israel's success in comparison to US failure at correctly estimating the course of the Iranian Revolution in 1977–79. In explaining this variance, the article shows that it was mainly the result of the intimate acquaintance of Israel's representatives… Expand
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