Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

  title={Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry},
  author={Karin Hoisl and Tobias Stelzer and Stefanie Biala},
  journal={Research Policy},

A Review of Technological Forecasting from the Perspective of Complex Systems

Technology forecasting (TF) is an important way to address technological innovation in fast-changing market environments and enhance the competitiveness of organizations in dynamic and complex

External Search for Exploration of Future Discontinuities and Trends: Implications from the Literature Using Co-Citation and Content Analysis

To stay ahead of the competition, firms need to constantly adapt to the changing environment by identifying new opportunities and product innovations. The search for future discontinuities and trends

Quantitative identification of technological discontinuities using simulation modeling

Five metrics based on innovation theories and tested by a simulation model-based knowledge network and hypothetically designed discontinuity to quantitatively identify technological discontinuities in a knowledge network show that the persistence times # of converging main paths provides the best performance in identifying the designed discontinuit.

Quantitative Identification of Technological Discontinuities

The empirical results show that, first, global citation structure- based metrics clearly provide better performance in the identification of technological discontinuities than local citation count-based metrics which have not been shown as clearly before, and, second, non-continuous nodes on the major knowledge networks are not at all related to technological discontinuity.

Competing Standard-Setting Organizations: A Choice Experiment

Standard-setting organizations (SSOs) establish goal-directed networks for innovators to jointly shape technology and markets through standards. The degree to which this can succeed depends to a

Quadrilateral Relationship Between Information and Communications Technology, Patent Applications, Research and Development Expenditures, and Growth Factors: Evidence from the Group of Seven (G-7) Countries

The quadrilateral relationship between information and communications technology (ICT), patent applications, research and development expenditures and specific growth factors examine to formulate the



Harnessing a Network of Experts for Competitive Advantage: Technology Scouting in the ICT Industry

In order to identify discontinuous technological change and develop appropriate action, companies are increasingly building technology foresight (TF) practices. This paper explores how, using

Indicators of discontinuous technological change: an exploratory study of two discontinuities in the machine tool industry

The extent to which a set of indicators of technological and industrial change can act as warning signals for technical change is explored to understand the conditions under which changes in each of the indicators can be used as a warning signal.

Technology Diffusion and Organizational Learning: The Case of Business Computing

The dominant explanation for the spread of technological innovations emphasizes processes of influence and information flow. Firms which are closely connected to pre-existing users of an innovation

The Sources of Innovation

It has long been assumed that product innovations are typically developed by product manufacturers. Because this assumption deals with the basic matter of who the innovator is, it has inevitably had

Customer preference discontinuities: a trigger for radical technological change

What factors cause a mature industry to re-enter a period of technological turbulence? This paper addresses this question by developing a model of technological evolution that incorporates both

Complements and Substitutes in Value Appropriation – A Choice Experimental Approach

The ability of firms to effectively use mechanisms that support them in appropriating value from innovation is key to outperforming competitors. Yet, such mechanisms have, for the most part, been

Technological discontinuities, competition and firm performance

This article discuss in a tentative way what determines the effect of technological discontinuities on the competitive position. of companies within an industry. Three cases of technological change