Corpus ID: 14638099

Forecasting Conflicts Using N-Grams Models

@inproceedings{Besse2012ForecastingCU,
  title={Forecasting Conflicts Using N-Grams Models},
  author={C. Besse and A. Bakhtiari and Luc Lamontagne},
  booktitle={FLAIRS Conference},
  year={2012}
}
Analyzing international political behavior based on similar precedent circumstances is one of the basic techniques that policymakers use to monitor and assess current situations. Our goal is to investigate how to analyze geopolitical conflicts as sequences of events and to determine what probabilistic models are suitable to perform these analyses. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of N-grams models on the problem of forecasting political conflicts from sequences of events. For the… Expand

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