• DOI:10.1126/SCIENCE.1057544
• Corpus ID: 23847498

Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change

@article{Tilman2001ForecastingAD,
  title={Forecasting Agriculturally Driven Global Environmental Change},
  author={David Tilman and Joseph E. Fargione and Brian G. Wolff and Carla M. D’Antonio and Andrew P. Dobson and Robert W. Howarth and David W. Schindler and William H. Schlesinger and Daniel Simberloff and Deborah L Swackhamer},
  journal={Science},
  year={2001},
  volume={292},
  pages={281 - 284}
}

• D. Tilman, J. Fargione, +7 authors D. Swackhamer
• Published 13 April 2001
• Environmental Science
• Science

During the next 50 years, which is likely to be the final period of rapid agricultural expansion, demand for food by a wealthier and 50% larger global population will be a major driver of global environmental change. Should past dependences of the global environmental impacts of agriculture on human population and consumption continue, 109 hectares of natural ecosystems would be converted to agriculture by 2050. This would be accompanied by 2.4- to 2.7-fold increases in nitrogen- and phosphorus-driven eutrophication of terrestrial, freshwater, and near-shore marine ecosystems, and comparable increases in pesticide use. This eutrophication and habitat destruction would cause unprecedented ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services, and species extinctions. Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion.