Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction

@inproceedings{Friederichs2012ForecastVF,
  title={Forecast verification for extreme value distributions with an application to probabilistic peak wind prediction},
  author={Petra Friederichs and Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir},
  year={2012}
}
Predictions of the uncertainty associated with extreme events are a vital component of any prediction system for such events. Consequently, the prediction system ought to be probabilistic in nature, with the predictions taking the form of probability distributions. This paper concerns probabilistic prediction systems where the data are assumed to follow either a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution or a generalized Pareto distribution. In this setting, the properties of proper scoring… CONTINUE READING

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