Corpus ID: 88517143

Forecast evaluation with imperfect observations and imperfect models.

@article{Naveau2018ForecastEW,
  title={Forecast evaluation with imperfect observations and imperfect models.},
  author={P. Naveau and J. Bessac},
  journal={arXiv: Methodology},
  year={2018}
}
The field of statistics has become one of the mathematical foundations in forecast evaluations studies, especially in regard to computing scoring rules. The classical paradigm of proper scoring rules is to discriminate between two different forecasts by comparing them with observations. The probability density function of the observed record is assumed to be perfect as a verification benchmark. In practice, however, observations are almost always tainted by errors. These may be due to… Expand

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