Flood quantiles in a changing climate: Seasonal forecasts and causal relations

  title={Flood quantiles in a changing climate: Seasonal forecasts and causal relations},
  author={A. Sankarasubramanian and Upmanu Lall},
  journal={Water Resources Research},
[1] Recognizing that the frequency distribution of annual maximum floods at a given location may change over time in response to interannual and longer climate fluctuations, we compare two approaches for the estimation of flood quantiles conditional on selected “climate indices” that carry the signal of structured low-frequency climate variation, and influence the atmospheric mechanisms that modify local precipitation and flood potential. A parametric quantile regression approach and a… Expand

Figures and Tables from this paper

Floods and Changing Climate: Seasonal Forecasts and Reconstruction
It is widely acknowledged that both climate and land use changes modify flood frequency, thereby challenging the traditional assumption that the underlying stochastic process is stationary in time,Expand
Climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling
[1] It is widely acknowledged that climate variability modifies the frequency spectrum of extreme hydrologic events. Traditional hydrological frequency analysis methods do not account for year toExpand
A climate informed model for nonstationary flood risk prediction: Application to Negro River at Manaus, Amazonia
Historically, flood risk management and flood frequency modeling have been based on assumption of stationarity, i.e., flood probabilities are invariant across years. However, it is now recognizedExpand
Quantifying Changes in Future Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Using Multimodel Ensemble Simulations
During the last century, we have observed a warming climate with more intense precipitation extremes in some regions, likely due to increases in the atmosphere's water holding capacity.Expand
Linking flood frequency to long‐term water balance: Incorporating effects of seasonality
Derived flood frequency models can be used to study climate and land use change effects on the flood frequency curve. Intra-annual (i.e., within year) climate variability strongly impacts upon theExpand
Detecting climate changes of concern in highly variable environments: Quantile regressions reveal that droughts worsen in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe
Rapid climate change is happening worldwide and is affecting ecosystems processes as well as plant and animal abundances and distribution. However, the large climate variability observed in arid andExpand
Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States
Federal agencies use flood frequency estimates to delineate flood risk, manage the National Flood Insurance Program, and ensure that Federal programs are economically efficient. The assumption behindExpand
Detecting climate changes of concern in highly variable environments : Quantile regressions reveal that droughts worsen in Hwange National Park , Zimbabwe
Rapid climate change is happening worldwide and is affecting ecosystems processes as well as plant and animal abundances and distribution. However, the large climate variability observed in arid andExpand
A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate
Abstract The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, includingExpand
Measuring the changing pulse of rivers
A consistent pan-European assessment of observed flood seasonality trends between 1960 and 2010 is provided, providing the first evaluation of how climatic changes are influencing flood regimes at the continental scale. Expand


Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future?
Hydrologists have traditionally assumed that the annual maximum flood process at a location is independent and identically distributed. While nonstationarities in the flood process due to land useExpand
Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue. Expand
Flood frequency analysis: Evidence and implications of secular climate variability, New South Wales
[1] One of the assumptions of flood frequency analysis is that annual maximum flood peaks are independently and identically distributed. Recent work has shown there exist persistent climate modesExpand
Magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods: Trends and large‐scale climatic associations for the Blacksmith Fork River, Utah
The magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt floods reflects seasonal snow accumulation and spring temperature patterns. Consequently, interannual variations in regions such as the intermountain West,Expand
Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages
Extreme events act as a catalyst for concern about whether the climate is changing. Statistical theory for extremes is used to demonstrate that the frequency of such events is relatively moreExpand
Seasonal to interannual ensemble streamflow forecasts for Ceara
[1] A semiparametric approach for forecasting streamflow at multiple gaging locations on a river network conditional on climate precursors is developed. The strategy considers statistical forecastsExpand
Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate
  • J. Knox
  • Environmental Science
  • Nature
  • 1993
RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1–5. Historical accounts suggest,Expand
Hydroclimatically-Defined Mixed Distributions in Partial Duration Flood Series
The possibility of mixed distributions in flood series is widely recognized and attempts to separate records into homogeneous subsets have been encouraged. climatic is often proposed as a source ofExpand
Drought and Regional Hydrologic Variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Using 94 years of monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data for 344 climate divisions, this study investigates the hydroclimatic response in the United States to the extreme phases of theExpand
A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production
Evidence gleaned from the instrumental record of climate data identifies a robust, recurring pattern of ocean–atmosphere climate variability centered over the midlatitude North Pacific basin. OverExpand