Fine-temporal forecasting of outbreak probability and severity: Ross River virus in Western Australia.

@article{Koolhof2017FinetemporalFO,
  title={Fine-temporal forecasting of outbreak probability and severity: Ross River virus in Western Australia.},
  author={I S Koolhof and Silvana Bettiol and Scott Carver},
  journal={Epidemiology and infection},
  year={2017},
  volume={145 14},
  pages={2949-2960}
}
Health warnings of mosquito-borne disease risk require forecasts that are accurate at fine-temporal resolutions (weekly scales); however, most forecasting is coarse (monthly). We use environmental and Ross River virus (RRV) surveillance to predict weekly outbreak probabilities and incidence spanning tropical, semi-arid, and Mediterranean regions of Western Australia (1991-2014). Hurdle and linear models were used to predict outbreak probabilities and incidence respectively, using time-lagged… CONTINUE READING
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